Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints Recap
NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Las Vegas Raiders WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Las Vegas Raiders at 40% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +12.9pp · closed at 2.73 (36.6%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.7pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Las Vegas Raiders picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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