Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys Recap
NFL · September 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Washington Commanders LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Commanders at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.77 (36.1%)
Solid 4.6% edge at FanDuel (2.80). Elo agrees (-34 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Washington Commanders picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.