Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers Recap
NFL · September 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Miami Dolphins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Dolphins at 14% against FanDuel's implied 14% — an edge of +17.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +18.4pp · closed at 7.85 (12.7%)
Model gives 31.2% vs FanDuel's implied 13.5%. Elo gap of -125 backs it.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Miami Dolphins picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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