Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Recap
NFL · September 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Texans LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Texans at 58% against FanDuel's implied 59% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.2pp · closed at 1.67 (59.9%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 2.0pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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