New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Prediction
NBA · June 04, 2026 · Lakeshore Edge calibrated model + Polymarket cross-check.
Moneyline bets in this sport are benched: the model is hitting 63% on a predicted 53% (a +10 pt calibration gap on n=43). Until that gap closes, these stay informational and aren't staked.
Why the model leans this way
The model's base read on New York Knicks starts at Elo, where a 143-point disadvantage (HCA of +100 Elo points to the home team) maps to a 28% baseline win probability. Recent form across the last 10 games shifted that to 32% after blending the team's last-10 record into the rating.
Opponent injury drag: -3.0pp, partially offsetting.
Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle prices New York Knicks at 38.6% — broadly in line with FanDuel's read. Pinnacle (the sharp-book reference, ~2% vig) has New York Knicks at 37.9%.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
What other markets think
Implied probability of New York Knicks across the books and prediction markets we track, alongside the Lakeshore Edge model's own number.
| Source | Implied % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 38.5% | Execution book (this is the price you'd take). |
| DraftKings | 39.4% | Cross-book check. |
| BetMGM | 39.2% | Cross-book check. |
| Pinnacle | 37.9% | Sharp-book reference (~2% vig). |
| Kalshi | 36.5% | CFTC-regulated event market. |
| Lakeshore Edge model | 46.6% | Edge vs FanDuel: +8.2pt. |
Frequently asked
What's the model's edge on New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs?
The Lakeshore Edge model rates New York Knicks at 47% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 38% — a meaningful edge of +8.2pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet. The model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 296 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.
How likely is New York Knicks to win according to the model?
47% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 37.9%; The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.
Why does the model disagree with the sportsbook?
FanDuel's price implies 38% on New York Knicks, but the model has it at 47% — a +8.2pt gap. Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle agrees the line is stale by 0.1pp. The model's reasoning is fully visible in the waterfall above; each adjustment stage is logged so the call can be audited after the game.
What's closing-line value (CLV) and why does it matter?
Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 296 graded singles, beating the close on 90% of them.
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