Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Recap
NBA · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Oklahoma City Thunder LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Oklahoma City Thunder at 50% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.4pp · closed at 2.41 (41.5%)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Model
50%
Market
43%
Edge
+7.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
31.7%
—
+ Season record + form
37.5%
+5.8pp
+ Factors (injuries / rest / refs / trends)
38.1%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
39.3%
+1.2pp
Platt rescale
50.7%
+11.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.8%
-3.9pp
Line-movement nudge
46.5%
-0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9%
+3.4pp
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