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Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Recap

NBA · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Oklahoma City Thunder LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Oklahoma City Thunder at 50% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.4pp  ·  closed at 2.41 (41.5%)

Small Play
Oklahoma City Thunder
+134 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 43%
Edge +7.2 pts

Solid 7.2% edge at FanDuel (2.34).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
31.7%
+ Season record + form
37.5% +5.8pp
+ Factors (injuries / rest / refs / trends)
38.1% +0.6pp
Calibration offset
39.3% +1.2pp
Platt rescale
50.7% +11.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.8% -3.9pp
Line-movement nudge
46.5% -0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9% +3.4pp

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