José Henrique @ Meng Ding Prediction

The Lakeshore Edge model rates José Henrique at 47% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 47% — a marginal edge of -1.0pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet; the model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 145 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.

47% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 50.5%; The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.

FanDuel's price implies 47% on José Henrique, but the model has it at 47% — a -1.0pt gap. Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle agrees the line is stale by 1.8pp. The model's reasoning is fully visible in the waterfall above; each adjustment stage is logged so the call can be audited after the game.

Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 145 graded singles, beating the close on 88% of them.