Cameron Smotherman @ Kai Asakura Recap
MMA · May 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Cameron Smotherman — VOID.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cameron Smotherman at 33% against FanDuel's implied 31% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Cameron Smotherman
+225 on FanDuel
Model
33%
Market
31%
Edge
+2.2 pts
Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (3.25).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Polymarket price
29.5%
—
Line-movement nudge
30.7%
+1.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.0%
+2.3pp
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