Cody Haddon @ Aori Qileng Prediction

The Lakeshore Edge model rates Aori Qileng at 25% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 25% — a marginal edge of -1.1pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet; the model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 145 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.

25% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 25.9%; The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.

Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 145 graded singles, beating the close on 88% of them.