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Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · September 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Milwaukee Brewers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 45% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.9pp  ·  closed at 2.18 (45.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+116 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 46%
Edge +5.5 pts

Solid 5.5% edge at FanDuel (2.16).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
48.3% —
+ Season record + form
51.5% +3.2pp
Platt rescale
44.6% -6.9pp
Final model probability
45.4% +0.8pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
12 - 5
Win rate
71%
Avg CLV
+4.4pt
ROI
+55.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.