San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · September 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.1pp · closed at 2.99 (33.4%)
Solid 7.8% edge at FanDuel (2.80). Elo agrees (-66 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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