Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · September 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.9pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
Solid 4.0% edge at FanDuel (2.24).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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