Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · September 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 50% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.9pp · closed at 2.11 (47.4%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.5pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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