Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
MLB · September 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.6pp · closed at 2.66 (37.6%)
Solid 4.9% edge at FanDuel (2.54).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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