Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · September 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 45% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.6pp · closed at 2.08 (48.1%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.7pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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