Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · September 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp · closed at 2.83 (35.3%)
Solid 6.0% edge at FanDuel (2.66). Elo agrees (-63 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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