Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · September 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +5.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.1pp · closed at 2.69 (37.2%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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