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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · September 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.5pp  ·  closed at 2.19 (45.7%)

Pass Dog play
St. Louis Cardinals
+112 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 47%
Edge +7.0 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.7pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.2% —
+ Season record + form
52.5% +3.3pp
Calibration offset
51.6% -0.9pp
Platt rescale
44.3% -7.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.4% +2.1pp
Final model probability
46.8% +0.4pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
6 - 7
Win rate
46%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.