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Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles Recap

MLB · September 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cleveland Guardians WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 48% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.2pp  ·  closed at 2.05 (48.8%)

Small Play Dog play
Cleveland Guardians
+106 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 49%
Edge +2.4 pts

Solid 2.4% edge at FanDuel (2.06).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.8%
+ Season record + form
49.3% +1.5pp
Platt rescale
42.6% -6.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.5% +0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.9% +4.3pp
Final model probability
47.9% -0.1pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
32
W - L
7 - 23
Win rate
23%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-60.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.