Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 48% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.9pp · closed at 2.51 (39.8%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
48%
Market
41%
Edge
+6.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.7%
—
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
44.9%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
46.5%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
42.5%
-4.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.9%
+1.4pp
Line-movement nudge
42.4%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.8%
+5.3pp
Final model probability
47.8%
-0.1pp
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