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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 48% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.9pp  ·  closed at 2.51 (39.8%)

Small Play Dog play
Minnesota Twins
+144 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 41%
Edge +6.8 pts

Solid 6.8% edge at FanDuel (2.44).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
43.7%
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
44.9% +1.2pp
Calibration offset
46.5% +1.6pp
Platt rescale
42.5% -4.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.9% +1.4pp
Line-movement nudge
42.4% -1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.8% +5.3pp
Final model probability
47.8% -0.1pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
15
W - L
6 - 9
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+4.4pt
ROI
+3.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.