Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · May 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 47% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.2pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Houston Astros

Model 47%

Market 45%

Edge +2.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

41.0% —

Calibration offset

43.5% +2.5pp

Platt rescale

40.2% -3.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.7% +1.5pp

Line-movement nudge

43.2% +1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.3% +4.1pp

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