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Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · May 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Miami Marlins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 49% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +5.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.3pp  ·  closed at 2.35 (42.5%)

Small Play Dog play
Miami Marlins
+132 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 43%
Edge +5.8 pts

Solid 5.8% edge at FanDuel (2.32).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
46.0%
+ Season record + form
47.1% +1.1pp
Calibration offset
47.7% +0.6pp
Platt rescale
45.9% -1.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.8% -1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.9% +4.1pp

Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
20
W - L
10 - 10
Win rate
50%
Avg CLV
+2.7pt
ROI
+17.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.