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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · May 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 40% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +5.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.6pp  ·  closed at 3.03 (33.0%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+194 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 34%
Edge +5.6 pts

Solid 5.6% edge at FanDuel (2.94). Elo agrees (-96 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
33.4%
+ Season record + form
31.4% -2.0pp
Calibration offset
35.7% +4.3pp
Platt rescale
38.6% +2.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.6% -2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.6% +3.0pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.