Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Prediction
MLB · May 26, 2026 · Lakeshore Edge calibrated model + Polymarket cross-check.
At FanDuel (1.79) the bet is negative-EV. FanDuel has the best price across the books we track — it's still negative-EV.
Why the model leans this way
The model's base read on Cincinnati Reds starts at Elo, where a 37-point advantage maps to a 52% baseline win probability. Recent form across the last 10 games shifted that to 54% after blending the team's last-10 record into the rating. Home-field constant adjusted by +2400.0pp.
Tonight's probable starter for Cincinnati Reds is Chase Burns (ERA 1.83). Net pitching matchup is favorable by 1.5pp before bullpen and weather adjustments. Weather: 74F, 8mph @ 168deg. Line-movement signal: sharp shorten +3.2%.
Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle prices Cincinnati Reds at 56.1% — broadly in line with FanDuel's read. Pinnacle (the sharp-book reference, ~2% vig) has Cincinnati Reds at 55.2%. Polymarket's real-money pool reads 54.5%.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
What other markets think
Implied probability of Cincinnati Reds across the books and prediction markets we track, alongside the Lakeshore Edge model's own number.
| Source | Implied % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 55.9% | Execution book (this is the price you'd take). |
| DraftKings | 56.8% | Cross-book check. |
| BetMGM | 57.5% | Cross-book check. |
| Pinnacle | 55.2% | Sharp-book reference (~2% vig). |
| Polymarket | 54.5% | Real-money prediction-market pool. |
| Kalshi | 54.5% | CFTC-regulated event market. |
| Lakeshore Edge model | 54.6% | Edge vs FanDuel: -1.3pt. |
Model performance on Cincinnati Reds picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Frequently asked
What's the model's edge on Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets?
The Lakeshore Edge model rates Cincinnati Reds at 55% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 54% — a marginal edge of -1.3pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet; the model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 145 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.
How likely is Cincinnati Reds to win according to the model?
55% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 55.2%; Polymarket's real-money traders price the same outcome at 54.5%. The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.
What's closing-line value (CLV) and why does it matter?
Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 145 graded singles, beating the close on 88% of them.
How has the model done on Cincinnati Reds picks recently?
Over the last 60 days the model has made 12 Cincinnati Reds picks, going 10-2 (83% win rate) averaging +3.01pt CLV with 75.17% ROI. Recent-team performance is a small slice; treat it as context for tonight's call rather than a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.