San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Recap
NBA · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Antonio Spurs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Antonio Spurs at 55% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.4pp · closed at 2.23 (44.8%)
San Antonio Spurs
-102 on FanDuel
Model
55%
Market
51%
Edge
+4.7 pts
Solid 4.7% edge at FanDuel (1.98).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.4%
—
Platt rescale
44.0%
-4.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.6%
+2.6pp
Line-movement nudge
46.9%
+0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
55.2%
+8.3pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.