Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Recap

NBA · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Oklahoma City Thunder LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Oklahoma City Thunder at 47% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp · closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Small Play Dog play

Oklahoma City Thunder

Model 47%

Market 44%

Edge +3.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

31.7% —

+ Season record + form

37.5% +5.8pp

Platt rescale

58.3% +20.8pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

54.1% -4.2pp

Line-movement nudge

53.3% -0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.4% -5.9pp

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