Jesus Santos Aguilar @ Rei Tsuruya Recap
MMA · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Jesus Santos Aguilar — VOID.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Jesus Santos Aguilar at 50% against FanDuel's implied 31% — an edge of +18.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Jesus Santos Aguilar
+220 on FanDuel
Model
50%
Market
31%
Edge
+18.4 pts
Model gives 49.6% vs FanDuel's implied 31.2%. No team-rating data — verify before sizing up.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Polymarket price
49.5%
—
Final model probability
49.6%
+0.1pp
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