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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · October 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.6pp  ·  closed at 2.35 (42.5%)

Small Play Dog play
Chicago White Sox
+142 on FanDuel
Model 41%
Market 41%
Edge +6.8 pts

Solid 6.8% edge at FanDuel (2.42).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.4% —
+ Season record + form
46.2% +1.8pp
Calibration offset
46.7% +0.5pp
Platt rescale
40.1% -6.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.0% +0.9pp

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