Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · September 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Philadelphia Phillies WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 46% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.2pp · closed at 2.12 (47.2%)
Solid 7.9% edge at FanDuel (2.20). Elo agrees (+51 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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