Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · September 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -3.0pp · closed at 1.70 (58.8%)
Solid 4.2% edge at FanDuel (1.94). Best is 2.25 at DraftKings.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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