Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals Recap
MLB · September 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 39% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +5.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp · closed at 2.70 (37.0%)
Solid 5.7% edge at FanDuel (2.64). Elo agrees (-74 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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