Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · September 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.1pp · closed at 2.01 (49.8%)
Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (2.10).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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