Lakeshore Edge Sign in

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · September 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Athletics LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 37% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.3pp  ·  closed at 2.90 (34.5%)

Pass Dog play
Athletics
+172 on FanDuel
Model 37%
Market 37%
Edge +7.0 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
34.6%
+ Season record + form
37.8% +3.2pp
Calibration offset
40.9% +3.2pp
Platt rescale
36.2% -4.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.1% -1.1pp
Final model probability
36.9% +1.8pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
53
W - L
18 - 35
Win rate
34%
Avg CLV
+5.8pt
ROI
-13.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.