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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · September 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 45% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.1pp  ·  closed at 2.10 (47.6%)

Small Play Dog play
Minnesota Twins
+132 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 43%
Edge +4.4 pts

Solid 4.4% edge at FanDuel (2.32).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.8%
Calibration offset
46.6% +0.8pp
Platt rescale
40.0% -6.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.4% -0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.8% +5.4pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
6 - 12
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+3.5pt
ROI
-46.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.