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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · September 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 30% against FanDuel's implied 30% — an edge of +14.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +14.4pp  ·  closed at 3.37 (29.7%)

Top Pick Dog play
Washington Nationals
+235 on FanDuel
Model 30%
Market 30%
Edge +14.2 pts

Model gives 44.1% vs FanDuel's implied 29.8%. Elo gap of -107 backs it.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
32.0%
+ Season record + form
34.2% +2.2pp
Calibration offset
38.2% +4.0pp
Platt rescale
32.6% -5.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
30.0% -2.6pp

Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
42
W - L
15 - 27
Win rate
36%
Avg CLV
+4.3pt
ROI
-30.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.