Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · September 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 45% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.0pp · closed at 2.06 (48.5%)
Solid 2.8% edge at FanDuel (2.14). Elo agrees (-42 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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