New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · September 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — New York Mets WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.2pp · closed at 2.62 (38.2%)
Solid 5.0% edge at FanDuel (2.54). Elo agrees (-31 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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