New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · September 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — New York Mets WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.2pp · closed at 2.62 (38.2%)
Solid 5.0% edge at FanDuel (2.54). Elo agrees (-31 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on New York Mets picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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