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New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · September 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 38% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp  ·  closed at 2.56 (39.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+162 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 38%
Edge +5.1 pts

Solid 5.1% edge at FanDuel (2.62). Elo agrees (-71 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
43.2% —
+ Season record + form
39.5% -3.7pp
Calibration offset
42.1% +2.6pp
Platt rescale
35.9% -6.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.1% -0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.2% +3.1pp

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