Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · September 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.29 (43.7%)
Chicago Cubs
+136 on FanDuel
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.8 pts
Solid 4.8% edge at FanDuel (2.36).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.6%
—
+ Season record + form
48.4%
-2.2pp
Calibration offset
48.5%
+0.1pp
Platt rescale
41.3%
-7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.9%
-2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.6%
+2.7pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.