Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Philadelphia Phillies WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 51% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.0pp · closed at 1.95 (51.3%)
Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.96). Elo agrees (+59 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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