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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · September 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.5pp  ·  closed at 2.56 (39.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Toronto Blue Jays
+154 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 39%
Edge +5.2 pts

Solid 5.2% edge at FanDuel (2.54). Best is 2.85 at BetMGM.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
43.9%
+ Season record + form
45.6% +1.7pp
Calibration offset
46.4% +0.8pp
Platt rescale
40.0% -6.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.7% -3.3pp
Final model probability
38.1% +1.4pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
11 - 12
Win rate
48%
Avg CLV
+3.7pt
ROI
+12.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.