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New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — New York Yankees LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Yankees at 54% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.5pp  ·  closed at 1.82 (54.9%)

Small Play
New York Yankees
-110 on FanDuel
Model 54%
Market 52%
Edge +3.1 pts

Solid 3.1% edge at FanDuel (1.91). Elo agrees (+74 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
57.1%
+ Season record + form
60.9% +3.8pp
Calibration offset
57.9% -3.0pp
Platt rescale
46.8% -11.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.1% -0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
53.8% +7.7pp

Model performance on New York Yankees picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
15 - 7
Win rate
68%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
+44.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.