Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · August 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.7pp · closed at 2.61 (38.3%)
Houston Astros
Model
38%
Market
39%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
37.9%
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