Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tampa Bay Rays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 49% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +3.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.25 (44.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Tampa Bay Rays

Model 49%

Market 45%

Edge +3.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

51.6% —

+ Season record + form

54.1% +2.5pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

53.4% -0.7pp

Calibration offset

52.8% -0.7pp

Platt rescale

51.5% -1.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

48.1% -3.4pp

Line-movement nudge

47.6% -0.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

48.9% +1.3pp

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

24 - 32

Win rate

43%

Avg CLV

+4.1pt

ROI

-11.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.