New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Miami Marlins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 56% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.1pp · closed at 1.79 (55.9%)

Small Play

Miami Marlins

Model 56%

Market 52%

Edge +4.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

54.2% —

+ Season record + form

53.1% -1.1pp

Calibration offset

52.4% -0.7pp

Platt rescale

50.2% -2.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

50.7% +0.5pp

Line-movement nudge

51.9% +1.2pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

55.8% +3.9pp

Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

10 - 10

Win rate

50%

Avg CLV

+2.7pt

ROI

+17.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.