Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · May 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Athletics WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 55% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Athletics
Model
55%
Market
49%
Edge
+5.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
56.3%
—
+ Season record + form
59.8%
+3.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
59.2%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
56.8%
-2.4pp
Platt rescale
52.8%
-4.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
52.2%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
54.5%
+2.3pp
Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
35
W - L
14 - 21
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-13.2%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.