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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 55% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Athletics
104 on FanDuel
Model 55%
Market 49%
Edge +5.5 pts

Solid 5.5% edge at FanDuel (2.04). Elo agrees (+68 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
56.3%
+ Season record + form
59.8% +3.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
59.2% -0.6pp
Calibration offset
56.8% -2.4pp
Platt rescale
52.8% -3.9pp
Final model probability
52.8% -0.1pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
27
W - L
16 - 11
Win rate
59%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.