Live model · today's slate

The model that beats the close.

We don't promise wins. We promise sharp entries — the kind of prices the closing market eventually agrees with. The data below is live.

Average CLV

+0.4pp

Implied-probability points better than the closing line, on average.

Beat the close

43%

Share of picks where the FanDuel market moved toward our side after we stamped it.

Beat the sharp close ◆

95%

Share of picks that beat Pinnacle's close — the low-vig book pros measure edge against.

Picks tracked

735

Resolved picks with both a stamped pick price and a stamped closing line.

Based on resolved picks with stamped closing lines. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

◆ Sharp-book benchmark

+5.2pp avg CLV vs Pinnacle's close

95% beat the sharp close (n=745)

Pinnacle runs ~2% vig vs FanDuel's ~4-5%, so its close is the cleanest "fair price" the market settled on. Sharp shops measure edge against Pinnacle — positive CLV here is the strongest possible signal that the model's prices are real, not the execution-book artifact.

Why CLV matters

Closing-line value is one of the cleanest ways to judge whether a model is finding real value. Results are noisy. CLV shows whether your price was better than the market by the time the game started.

Last 7 days
settled

31-52

W–L record

37.3%

Hit rate

+3.3pp

Avg CLV

89%

Beat the close

More edges the model likes today

Top 3 picks by predicted value. Sign in for the full slate.

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Closing-line value, daily

Every pick is graded against the line at game time. CLV is the single best predictor of long-term sharpness.

Live, never stale

Every five minutes we pull fresh prices and re-rank edges. You'll see the same numbers a syndicate trader does.

Open-book audit

Every feature the model uses, calibration plots, per-pick feature waterfalls. Nothing hidden behind marketing copy.

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