Elena Rybakina @ Iga Swiatek Recap
Canadian Open (W) · August 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Elena Rybakina LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Elena Rybakina at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +10.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.2pp · closed at 2.20 (45.5%)
Model gives 46.6% vs FanDuel's implied 35.7%. No team-rating data — verify before sizing up.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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