Iga Swiatek @ Marta Kostyuk Recap
Roland-Garros (W) · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Marta Kostyuk WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Marta Kostyuk at 33% against FanDuel's implied 31% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp · closed at 3.54 (28.2%)
Solid 2.5% edge at FanDuel (3.25).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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