Sorana Cirstea @ Solana Sierra Recap

Roland-Garros (W) · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Solana Sierra LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Solana Sierra at 29% against FanDuel's implied 26% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 3.98 (25.1%)

Small Play Dog play

Solana Sierra

Model 29%

Market 26%

Edge +2.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

28.6% —

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